Royal Ascot Saturday 24th June 2017

We had a middling sort of day on Friday then with the two big selections coming home well, one of the each way selections winning and three more finishing in the money. Lets hope the final day can be the same as the first and that we can top and tail the meeting with hugely profitable days.

The Saturday Ascot card always has a little bit of a feel of ‘after the Lord Mayor’s show’ to me as the racing isn’t quite of the same standard as the previous four with more handicaps and listed races than group races. In fact until a few years ago the Saturday card was not designated a ‘Royal’ day and was just referred to as Ascot Heath. Maybe this is something that needs to be looked at as it is a shame for the final day to be the weakest. Even more so as it is a Saturday and more people can watch it. Upgrading the Hardwicke to Group 1 would be a good start and the opening Chesham should also be elevated to group status on my opinion. I also think it is a shame that the meeting ends with the worst race of the week.

Anyway enough with the moaning lets take a look at the races.

The Chesham Stakes at 2:00 is the longest 2 year old race of the week and despite only having listed status it usually attracts a quality field. This years 2000 Guineas winner Churchill won the race last year and Aiden O’Brien once again looks to have a good chance in the race. Unlike a lot of the O’Brien horses the superbly bred SEPTEMBER won first time out and looks to be the most likely winner here as she won her maiden in fine style. I wouldn’t put anyone off Westerland or Masar though and that is my predicted 1-2-3.

The first of the handicaps the Wolferton is at 3:05 although this one does have listed status. A decent field has been assembled and it being a handicap rather than a conditions event makes it a little more difficult to solve. Having said that KHAIRAAT is one of the few unexposed horses in the field that could make up into a genuine group performer. He has won three of his four starts and was second in the other and I expect him to confirm he is still on the upgrade here. Elbereth, who has some good form in the book and the consistent Central Square look the two most likely to chase him home.

The Hardwicke Stakes at 3:40 is a fascinating event with some good middle distance horses who are arguably just below top class. A case could be made for and against most of the runners and it is a very difficult one to call. Dartmouth has an obvious chance as he won the race last year and has the assistance of Ryan Moore in the plate. However his only win this season was over two furlongs further. Also with Moore on board and being owned by the Queen he will surely go off at shorter odds than he should. With this is mind I am going to side with Highland Reel’s brother IDAHO who will surely land a big prize at some point this season. Presumably Moore could have had the ride but has chosen Dartmouth instead, something which will probably push the price out. Taking 6/1 each way about Idaho is far more sensible than taking 7/4 about Dartmouth in my book. Dal Harraild is also of interest and I could very much see him running into a place at decent odds.

The only Group 1 of the day is the Diamond Jubilee at 4:20 and the winner of this will surely be vying with Carvaggio and Lady Aurelia for the sprint crown. Having selected both of them to win their respective races I am looking for the hat-trick  here with LIMATO. The biggest danger is the lack of a genuine front runner but it is difficult to envisage something not deciding to blaze a trail so he is a confident selection. Librissa Breeze is a very interesting runner who will also be finishing late and could run into a place at a price.

As ever the Wokingham at 5:00 is something of a lottery and at least a dozen of them have live chances. Horses like Lancelot Du Lac, Eastern Impact, Danzeno, Outback Traveller, Out Do and G Force are all potential winners but I am going to side with RAUCOUS. He really looks to have been laid out for this and his fine third in last seasons Stewards Cup shows he can handle these big field cavalry charges. Now as a four year old he will be stronger, has first time blinkers and Ryan Moore on board. I am expecting him to be very popular in the shops in the morning and wouldn’t be surprised if he ended up favourite by off time. If you can get double figures in the morning I would take it. One of the more interesting runners in the race is Birchwood who was a top class two year old but has lost his way somewhat. First time blinkers and a drop to handicap company as well as in trip could see him run a big race at around 25/1. Buckstay has yet to be seen this season but runs well fresh and loves these large field straight course handicaps  and he could also make the frame under a late drive from Jamie Spencer.

So to the final race of the meeting then the Queen Alexandra Stakes at 5:35. It has always puzzled me why the best flat race meeting in the world ends with a conditions race over two mile five furlongs which attracts mostly mediocre horses or ones that are on some sort of resurrection plan. This years renewal is no different with Winning Story and US Army Ranger running over a trip that seems much too far for them after their careers have gone off the rails somewhat. The most likely victor to me is Tuesday’s winner THOMAS HOBSON. If he turns out again he will take some beating. If he is a non runner then QEWY who is making his seasonal debut but goes well fresh looks the best alternative.

And sadly, so ends another year. The first being covered by ITV and they should be congratulated on putting together a full afternoons quality entertainment every day. A lot of people were sceptical about how well they would do but after learning from the mistakes of the early shows they are emerging as a very likeable bunch with a nice mixture of serious content and insight alongside what appears to be genuine enjoyment of what they are doing. It is hard to imagine some of the presenters of the past agreeing to sing along to the band at the end. Come on who can honestly say they aren’t imagining Julian Wilson launching into Delilah now. Whoever had the idea to extend the programme until six rather than cutting off hurriedly straight after the last race deserves recognition.

Well we actually got the blog out everyday this time which is a marked improvement on previous years. We also had a bumper day on Tuesday which should have put anyone following us so far ahead that a profit for the week was already guaranteed. Thanks for all the emails, views  and comments especially to my good friends over at the Starters Orders 6  and Strategic Designs Forums. Hopefully be back with more in the near future. Until then, stay lucky.

Royal Ascot Friday 23rd June 2017

After day three it is beginning to seriously look as though all the good luck was used up on Tuesday as returns were very meagre on Thursday. No actual winners from the first choice selections but one came second and a couple of others were on the wrong side of the track. Two of the second choices came in as well so we weren’t a million miles away.

Lets take a look at an interesting day four.

The opening Albany Stakes at 2:30 is another one of those tricky two year old races where we have a few unbeaten and a few from the powerhouse stables as well. I am going to go against one of my rules here and not select one of the unbeaten ones. Wesley Ward has two unbeaten fillies in this and Fairyland looks to be the one people fancy the most. The other Princess Peggy was in a collision with a cyclist yesterday but was unharmed and will run. Of the other unbeaten horses I was particularly impressed with Alpha Centauri in her last start and she very nearly ended up top of my list. Instead I am going to go for the once raced Aiden O’Brien filly CLEMMIE. The sister of Churchill  was only third on her racecourse debut but plenty of O’Brien horses get beaten first time out but learn a lot from the experience. I expect that to be the case here. The Jessica Harrington filly should follow her home.

The King Edward VII Stakes at 3:05 is known as the Ascot Derby and as usual has a couple of the horses who finished down the field in that race in its line up. The form of the Derby was boosted yesterday by Benbatl but I don’t expect any of the Epsom horses to prevail here. The Queen looks to have a very good chance of a winner with the lightly raced CALL TO MIND. After winning his maiden well he was unlucky to  find trouble in running in his second race. Unraced at two he still has plenty of improvement in him and at the likely odds of around 16/1 he is a sporting alternative to the likely favourite Crystal Ocean. His half brother Hillstar won this race a few years ago and he bypassed the Derby in favour of this. Once again it was a close call between the two.

The first of the days feature races The Commonwealth Cup is next up at 3:40 and for me it is impossible to oppose CARVAGGIO. The unbeaten Scat Daddy speedball won the Coventry here last year and I fully expect him to take this in breath taking style. For me he is the banker of the week.

The second of the Group 1 races on day four The Coronation Stakes at 4:20 should provide the O’Brien/Moore combo with a treble as once again WINTER is simply unopposable although she is not likely to go off at very rewarding odds. Most punters will probably double up on Carvaggio and Winter so if Carvaggio wins the price of Winter will shorten further so if you fancy them both taking an early price might be wise.

The Queens Vase at 5:00 has been shortened in distance this year to a mile and three quarters instead of two miles in a bid to attract a classier field. If the experiment works the race should become a serious trial for the St Leger. Once again the field is full of improving horses although most have seen the race course plenty of times. I am going to side with one of the lesser fancied runners in this and select ALQAMAR. A well bred Godolphin charge he was slightly disappointing at two, failing to win in three attempts. However he absolutely annihilated a handicap field at York on his only start this season and may have arrived here under the radar somewhat. Charlie Appleby, James Doyle and Godolphin have all hit form this week and he is simply too big a price to overlook at 33/1. Haripour, Time To Study and Stradivarius all have live chances and the latter is my choice to follow the selection home.

The closing Duke of Edinburgh Stakes at 5:35 is possibly the hardest race of the week so far to solve. The majority of these are seasoned handicappers with many miles under their belts and it could come down to luck in running or who is just best treated on the day. Sixties Groove will have plenty of supporters given the run last time out but is liable to be much too short a price if the big guns have come in earlier in the day. He will be a popular choice of newspaper tipsters and will subsequently  feature in many betting shop multiples so the high street chains will be keen to get the price down to reduce liabilities. I think the key to this race is Roger Varian and he runs two that I fancy. Preference is just for the unbeaten WADIGOR. Unraced at two and not seen at all on a racecourse until last September he has only had three runs winning them all well. In truth he is the only horse in the race who could be considered unexposed and potentially a group horse. Varian’s second runner Appeared is slightly lower in both the handicap and the betting and boasts some solid form. I can see them giving the trainer a 1-2. Baydar is also of interest dropping back to handicap company and having a decent five pound claimer on board. He would be my tricast selection.

Just one more day to go then after this. Once again lets hope for a repeat of Tuesday and good luck to anyone having a go. Back for one last tilt tomorrow.

Royal Ascot Thursday 22nd June 2017

The magic touch of day one failed to carry over to day two but it wasn’t a complete washout. One winner at 5/2 and three placed including a 20/1 and a 5/1 from the main selections means level stakes each way punters would have made a slight profit and win only players would have had almost 60% of their stake back. The others weren’t too far off the mark and if you’d have told me at the start of the week that after 12 races I’d have had 6 winners, 2 seconds a third and a fourth I’d have happily settled for that.

Day three looks quite difficult and there are no real stand out dead-certs for me. At the likely odds most of todays selections are backable each way. Add to that the possibility of storms overnight and potential non runners after this is published and the advice is to tread cautiously.

The two year olds get things under way with the Norfolk Stakes at 2:30 and once again Wesley Ward has the tissue favourite with McErin. There are two trains of thought here. One, that his ‘best’ two year old got turned over yesterday. and two, he has had one hack up on both days. Personally I am joining the first camp as I am wondering if the straight 5 furlongs will stretch the horses stamina, that added to the fact that it has already been beaten is enough for me to side step it. My selection is SANTRY who has already won twice, is unbeaten and has already beaten a few of these. He looks the type to stick with for a while. True Blue Moon looks the better of Aiden O’Brien’s pair despite Ryan Moore choosing Sioux Nation and he could chase the selection home.

The Hampton Court Stakes at 3:05 has a strong field of three year olds and features a mix of horses who just came up short in classics and classic trials and unexposed potential improvers. Mirage Dancer and Tamleek could both be top class but I am going to go for one with some solid form in the book. BAY OF POETS was placed in two Derby trials and finished mid division in the French Derby. Add to that the fact that he has been gelded since and that the stable and Godolphin have hit form and it makes him of enough interest to be a sporting selection. The other Godolphin horse Benbatl could chase him home.

The Ribblesdale Stakes at 3:40 is a race I always like and the superbly bred MORI looks to be the one here. Sir Michael Stoute overtaking Sir Henry Cecil as leading all time Royal Ascot trainer with a Frankel filly would also be a nice touch. Alluringly looks set to chase her home.

Technically the centrepiece of the whole meeting the Gold Cup is at 4:20 and as seems to be usual these days it is likely there will be a very short priced favourite. Order Of St George won the race well last year and has obviously had his whole season geared around a repeat. However, the difference in the ground, the fact that the Ballydoyle horses have mostly come up a little short so far this week and the slight doubts I have about the horses appetite for a battle mean selecting him at the current odds is a non starter. A far better gamble in my opinion could be taken on SIMPLE VERSE having the necessary stamina to see out the trip. She certainly has the class and the speed to put all these to the sword. At the likely odds it is worth taking a chance on her stamina. Trainer, Ralph Beckett is convinced by all accounts that the trip holds no fear for the 2015 St Leger winner. It wouldn’t surprise me to see Torcedor follow her home.

Two very tricky three year old handicaps end the day. Firstly at 5:00 the Britannia Stakes. As is the way with these Ascot handicaps there are a lot of unexposed horses who will probably go on to win in pattern company later in the season. A case could be made for several and once again most of the big yards and connections are represented. The one that interests me the most is the Charlie Hills trained AFAAK, it has the classic profile of a Hamdan Al Maktoum big handicap winner and won its last two races nicely. With just 8 stone 11 it is receiving weight from most of the fancied runners and looks a good bet to finish in the money. Gilgamesh who is on a five timer is also fairly treated and is my second selection. The well bred Senator, by Frankel out of Red Bloom is surely better than he has shown so far and is my tricast selection in the hope that the step up in trip will suit.

The final race on day three is the King George V Stakes at 5:35 and this one is no easier to solve than the Britannia. In this one I like the look of MASTER SINGER. He won his maiden at Newcastle on the dirt by an incredible sixteen lengths and if he can transfer that ability to turf he could be something special. John Gosden does not enter horses unless he thinks they can win and it is likely he sees this horse as a potential group performer later in the season. There are plenty of other improving and unexposed horses in the race though so it will be no sixteen length cakewalk today. Atty Persse also looks to be one to keep on side and he could give the selection most to do. Top weight Homesman has some good solid form and despite concerns about the weight he is my tricast selection.

Lets hope day three is more day one than day two and good luck to anyone having a punt. Back for more on day four.

 

 

Royal Ascot Wednesday 21st June 2017

Well what a day the first day turned out to be. Almost tempted to quit whilst I am ahead but where would be the fun in that. The five winners provided a 3000/1 five-timer and if the last one, beaten a neck, had gone in it would have been well over 40,000.

Even the placed suggestions ran well with at least three of them finishing in the money and there was even a forecast in there as well.

Hope some of you followed the advice and have separated some bookies from their cash.

Can lightning strike twice, only one way to find out. Here are my thoughts on day two.

There is probably no Ribchester, winner of this last year and the first yesterday, in the opening Jersey Stakes at 2:30 but there are still some interesting looking horses. The one I like the look of most is DABAN. I thought she would win the 1000 Guineas after her top notch performance in the Nell Gwyn and she lost nothing in defeat in that race. The form has been well and truly franked and she has plenty of improvement in her. Add to that John Gosden’s brilliant placement of his horses and she ticks enough boxes to get the vote. Even the missing through injury Frankie Dettori is no negative as Andrea Atzeni is a fine substitute. Tamool is another sure improver and would be the suggestion to chase her home.

Big fields are the order of the day on day two and 24 will line up for the Queen Mary at 3:05. Despite there being some well bred and interesting fillies from this side of the ocean my contacts Stateside are more confident about HAPPY LIKE A FOOL then any other horse they have sent over. Wesley Ward has openly admitted it is his best chance of a win and considering he has already had one with Lady Aurelia that is a huge tip in itself. If anything can spoil the party it is most likely to be the Willie Jarvis trained Mrs Gallagher, unbeaten in one start over course and distance this well bred filly should finish in the money.

The Duke of Cambridge at 3:40 has a top quality field and should be a race to savour. Mix and Mingle is unlikely to get the tactical advantage she did at Lingfield today and I expect the race to go the way of the French. Last years Coronation Stakes and dual Group One winner QEMAH carries no penalty in this Group 2 and is narrowly preferred to last years winner Usherette.

The Prince of Wales’s Stakes at 4:20 looks like a fascinating event and should be one of the most interesting races of the week. Highland Reel looks to be better over a mile and a half and I would have serious concerns about Jack Hobbs on the ground which is liable to be even firmer than today. ULYSSES however seems to have everything in his favour. I think he will have too much speed for Highland Reel and Jack Hobbs and too much class for the others. He is a confident selection. Mekhtaal could run into second.

The Royal Hunt Cup at 5:00 is as much of a quandary as ever with the mixture of unexposed potential group performers mixed in with some seasoned handicappers. Horses like GM Hopkins, Banksea, Belgian Bill, Yuften and George William are sure to go well but I like the chances of BALLET CONCERTO providing a win for the Moore/Stoute combo. Desperately unlucky at Epsom he has the look of a typical Michael Stoute improver at 4. Fastnet Tempest looks like a classic Hunt Cup horse and would be my suggestion to chase the selection home. GK Chesterton is also of interest for tricast purposes as he still appears to be on the upgrade and the Appleby stable has hit form.

The Sandringham is another tricky handicap with a huge field and ends day two at 5:35. With 24 largely unexposed fillies going to post it is no easy get out stakes. The top weight Rain Goddess is just the type of horse Aiden O’Brien is likely to win a race like this with but after the disappointing runs of his horses yesterday it is difficult to enthuse about her given the weight. John Gosden has two in the race and my preference is for PRESENT TENSE the horse which Frankie Dettori had chosen to ride ahead of Gymnaste before being side lined through injury. She has had only three runs, the last of which can be dismissed due to the lack of a proper racing pace, something she won’t encounter here, she looks a sure improver. On Her Toes has only been seen once this season, running well in second with a number of todays rivals behind and is the one who could give her most to do. A three time winner last season she has more experience than the selection and was only narrowly over looked. Queen of Time has already won twice this season and looks sure to win again before the season is out. She would be my tricast selection.

That is my opinion on day two then. Probably too much to hope for another day like yesterday but windmill tilting is a popular pastime in these parts.

Royal Ascot Tuesday 20th June 2017

So after being unable to write free to air in 2016 I am back with a daily look at this years Royal meeting. Hopefully I can point you in the direction of one or two longer priced each way fancies this year that will provide a different option to taking short price favourites. Having said that though there are of course always going to be one or two that are  unopposable even at a short price.

As ever, day one kicks off with the Queen Anne Stakes at 2:30, a straight mile for the older horses and one that has been quite kind to me over the years. Despite my comments in the opening paragraph RIBCHESTER has the look of one of those unopposable favourites and appears to be in the mould of a classic Queen Anne winner. Still on the upgrade it is difficult to see past him. For those looking for a long price each way alternative or  a forecast you could do worse than Ennaadd at about the 20/1 mark. Impressive in one run as a two year old he was actually being touted as a Guineas horse that winter and despite not quite making that grade remained unbeaten in three races at three. Despite failing to win in two starts so far this season he has the look of a horse that will make up into a good four year old and looks good value for a place.

The first two year old race of the meeting is the Coventry Stakes at 3:05 and as ever the field is both strong and competitive. Regular followers of mine will know that I like to keep unbeaten horses on side and there are a number of those on offer here. Despite that De Bruyne Horse is liable to go off a worthy favourite even though he has tasted defeat once already before wining the Woodcote at Epsom. This is a much tougher assignment than the Woodcote though and I expect a few to improve past him. Jessica Harrington’s Brother Bear had plenty of these behind when winning at the Curragh and heads many early price boards. The preference for me though is the unbeaten RAJASINGHE. Bred to be a two year old he destroyed the field in his only run so far at Newcastle and if coping with the step up in class he could well worth an each way punt at around the 12/1 mark. The unbeaten Denaar is my suggestion for the forecast.

Sprinters come to the fore at 3:40 for the Kings Stand Stakes and this should be lightning fast in the quick conditions. I have been a keen follower of Muthmir throughout his career but he seems to come up short in the top races and I expect more of the same today. He could though be good value for a place at around 16/1. In truth the race looks to be between Marsha and LADY AURELIA. It is a close call but I just prefer the later mainly due to the memory of her performance here last year and the fact that she receives weight from the whole field.

The main race of day one is the St James Palace Stakes at 4:20 and this one definitely has the look of a match between the Guineas 1-2. Churchill has been very impressive so far this season but at the likely odds BARNEY ROY makes much more sense as a bet. He is far more lightly raced so you would expect there to be plenty of improvement still to come and he comes to the race fresh having bypassed the Irish Guineas. He only needs to improve a length or so and was very unlucky in running at Newmarket. The remainder appear to be running for third but Churchill’s pacemaker Lancaster Bomber is a tough horse and could hold on for third. If all eight go to post the 25/1 each way could be a steal.

The first handicap of the meeting is the long distance Ascot Stakes at 5:00 and what a tight handicap it is. Twenty runners separated by only nine pounds a case can be made for almost all of the runners. My tendency here is to look for one at decent odds but I can’t seem to get away from THOMAS HOBSON despite him not having run on the level for 1333 days. This race usually goes to a National Hunt trainer and Willie Mullins looks to have laid this one out for the race. The likely odds of 3/1 are not that appealing but he is still hard to get away from. This is a good race for selecting more than one runner and for those interested in longer price each way alternatives or a tricast or forecast bet my suggestions would be Cartwright from the Sir Mark Prescott yard who never enters a horse just for the sake of it at this meeting and Magic Circle who ran well in the Chester Cup from a hopeless draw.

Day one ends with another two year old race the Windsor Castle Stakes at 5:35. With twenty four runners they will be spread right across the track and there looks to be pace on both sides of the draw. Wesley Ward has a strong hand with two unbeaten fillies Nootka Sound and Elizabeth Darcy, they are both likely to be up with the pace but may just go too quickly on a straight course and set the race up for something from behind. With that in mind I am going to go with ROUSSEL who won well at Leicester recently despite not looking as though he was totally aware of his job that day. I expect the £360,000 purchase to have improved considerably since that day and that Charlie Appleby will have him spot on for this race. The fast pace is likely to get him interested and see him knuckle down and stick to his task better here. That pace could also set up Declarationofpeace to run into a place as he is bred for a longer trip than most of these.

Those are my thoughts on day one then. BOLD CAPITALS is my likely idea of the winner, bold itallics each way alternatives and/or forecast/tricast suggestions.

Good luck to everyone having a punt and I’ll be back tomorrow with some more hopefully useful insights.