We had a middling sort of day on Friday then with the two big selections coming home well, one of the each way selections winning and three more finishing in the money. Lets hope the final day can be the same as the first and that we can top and tail the meeting with hugely profitable days.
The Saturday Ascot card always has a little bit of a feel of ‘after the Lord Mayor’s show’ to me as the racing isn’t quite of the same standard as the previous four with more handicaps and listed races than group races. In fact until a few years ago the Saturday card was not designated a ‘Royal’ day and was just referred to as Ascot Heath. Maybe this is something that needs to be looked at as it is a shame for the final day to be the weakest. Even more so as it is a Saturday and more people can watch it. Upgrading the Hardwicke to Group 1 would be a good start and the opening Chesham should also be elevated to group status on my opinion. I also think it is a shame that the meeting ends with the worst race of the week.
Anyway enough with the moaning lets take a look at the races.
The Chesham Stakes at 2:00 is the longest 2 year old race of the week and despite only having listed status it usually attracts a quality field. This years 2000 Guineas winner Churchill won the race last year and Aiden O’Brien once again looks to have a good chance in the race. Unlike a lot of the O’Brien horses the superbly bred SEPTEMBER won first time out and looks to be the most likely winner here as she won her maiden in fine style. I wouldn’t put anyone off Westerland or Masar though and that is my predicted 1-2-3.
The first of the handicaps the Wolferton is at 3:05 although this one does have listed status. A decent field has been assembled and it being a handicap rather than a conditions event makes it a little more difficult to solve. Having said that KHAIRAAT is one of the few unexposed horses in the field that could make up into a genuine group performer. He has won three of his four starts and was second in the other and I expect him to confirm he is still on the upgrade here. Elbereth, who has some good form in the book and the consistent Central Square look the two most likely to chase him home.
The Hardwicke Stakes at 3:40 is a fascinating event with some good middle distance horses who are arguably just below top class. A case could be made for and against most of the runners and it is a very difficult one to call. Dartmouth has an obvious chance as he won the race last year and has the assistance of Ryan Moore in the plate. However his only win this season was over two furlongs further. Also with Moore on board and being owned by the Queen he will surely go off at shorter odds than he should. With this is mind I am going to side with Highland Reel’s brother IDAHO who will surely land a big prize at some point this season. Presumably Moore could have had the ride but has chosen Dartmouth instead, something which will probably push the price out. Taking 6/1 each way about Idaho is far more sensible than taking 7/4 about Dartmouth in my book. Dal Harraild is also of interest and I could very much see him running into a place at decent odds.
The only Group 1 of the day is the Diamond Jubilee at 4:20 and the winner of this will surely be vying with Carvaggio and Lady Aurelia for the sprint crown. Having selected both of them to win their respective races I am looking for the hat-trick here with LIMATO. The biggest danger is the lack of a genuine front runner but it is difficult to envisage something not deciding to blaze a trail so he is a confident selection. Librissa Breeze is a very interesting runner who will also be finishing late and could run into a place at a price.
As ever the Wokingham at 5:00 is something of a lottery and at least a dozen of them have live chances. Horses like Lancelot Du Lac, Eastern Impact, Danzeno, Outback Traveller, Out Do and G Force are all potential winners but I am going to side with RAUCOUS. He really looks to have been laid out for this and his fine third in last seasons Stewards Cup shows he can handle these big field cavalry charges. Now as a four year old he will be stronger, has first time blinkers and Ryan Moore on board. I am expecting him to be very popular in the shops in the morning and wouldn’t be surprised if he ended up favourite by off time. If you can get double figures in the morning I would take it. One of the more interesting runners in the race is Birchwood who was a top class two year old but has lost his way somewhat. First time blinkers and a drop to handicap company as well as in trip could see him run a big race at around 25/1. Buckstay has yet to be seen this season but runs well fresh and loves these large field straight course handicaps and he could also make the frame under a late drive from Jamie Spencer.
So to the final race of the meeting then the Queen Alexandra Stakes at 5:35. It has always puzzled me why the best flat race meeting in the world ends with a conditions race over two mile five furlongs which attracts mostly mediocre horses or ones that are on some sort of resurrection plan. This years renewal is no different with Winning Story and US Army Ranger running over a trip that seems much too far for them after their careers have gone off the rails somewhat. The most likely victor to me is Tuesday’s winner THOMAS HOBSON. If he turns out again he will take some beating. If he is a non runner then QEWY who is making his seasonal debut but goes well fresh looks the best alternative.
And sadly, so ends another year. The first being covered by ITV and they should be congratulated on putting together a full afternoons quality entertainment every day. A lot of people were sceptical about how well they would do but after learning from the mistakes of the early shows they are emerging as a very likeable bunch with a nice mixture of serious content and insight alongside what appears to be genuine enjoyment of what they are doing. It is hard to imagine some of the presenters of the past agreeing to sing along to the band at the end. Come on who can honestly say they aren’t imagining Julian Wilson launching into Delilah now. Whoever had the idea to extend the programme until six rather than cutting off hurriedly straight after the last race deserves recognition.
Well we actually got the blog out everyday this time which is a marked improvement on previous years. We also had a bumper day on Tuesday which should have put anyone following us so far ahead that a profit for the week was already guaranteed. Thanks for all the emails, views and comments especially to my good friends over at the Starters Orders 6 and Strategic Designs Forums. Hopefully be back with more in the near future. Until then, stay lucky.