After day three it is beginning to seriously look as though all the good luck was used up on Tuesday as returns were very meagre on Thursday. No actual winners from the first choice selections but one came second and a couple of others were on the wrong side of the track. Two of the second choices came in as well so we weren’t a million miles away.
Lets take a look at an interesting day four.
The opening Albany Stakes at 2:30 is another one of those tricky two year old races where we have a few unbeaten and a few from the powerhouse stables as well. I am going to go against one of my rules here and not select one of the unbeaten ones. Wesley Ward has two unbeaten fillies in this and Fairyland looks to be the one people fancy the most. The other Princess Peggy was in a collision with a cyclist yesterday but was unharmed and will run. Of the other unbeaten horses I was particularly impressed with Alpha Centauri in her last start and she very nearly ended up top of my list. Instead I am going to go for the once raced Aiden O’Brien filly CLEMMIE. The sister of Churchill was only third on her racecourse debut but plenty of O’Brien horses get beaten first time out but learn a lot from the experience. I expect that to be the case here. The Jessica Harrington filly should follow her home.
The King Edward VII Stakes at 3:05 is known as the Ascot Derby and as usual has a couple of the horses who finished down the field in that race in its line up. The form of the Derby was boosted yesterday by Benbatl but I don’t expect any of the Epsom horses to prevail here. The Queen looks to have a very good chance of a winner with the lightly raced CALL TO MIND. After winning his maiden well he was unlucky to find trouble in running in his second race. Unraced at two he still has plenty of improvement in him and at the likely odds of around 16/1 he is a sporting alternative to the likely favourite Crystal Ocean. His half brother Hillstar won this race a few years ago and he bypassed the Derby in favour of this. Once again it was a close call between the two.
The first of the days feature races The Commonwealth Cup is next up at 3:40 and for me it is impossible to oppose CARVAGGIO. The unbeaten Scat Daddy speedball won the Coventry here last year and I fully expect him to take this in breath taking style. For me he is the banker of the week.
The second of the Group 1 races on day four The Coronation Stakes at 4:20 should provide the O’Brien/Moore combo with a treble as once again WINTER is simply unopposable although she is not likely to go off at very rewarding odds. Most punters will probably double up on Carvaggio and Winter so if Carvaggio wins the price of Winter will shorten further so if you fancy them both taking an early price might be wise.
The Queens Vase at 5:00 has been shortened in distance this year to a mile and three quarters instead of two miles in a bid to attract a classier field. If the experiment works the race should become a serious trial for the St Leger. Once again the field is full of improving horses although most have seen the race course plenty of times. I am going to side with one of the lesser fancied runners in this and select ALQAMAR. A well bred Godolphin charge he was slightly disappointing at two, failing to win in three attempts. However he absolutely annihilated a handicap field at York on his only start this season and may have arrived here under the radar somewhat. Charlie Appleby, James Doyle and Godolphin have all hit form this week and he is simply too big a price to overlook at 33/1. Haripour, Time To Study and Stradivarius all have live chances and the latter is my choice to follow the selection home.
The closing Duke of Edinburgh Stakes at 5:35 is possibly the hardest race of the week so far to solve. The majority of these are seasoned handicappers with many miles under their belts and it could come down to luck in running or who is just best treated on the day. Sixties Groove will have plenty of supporters given the run last time out but is liable to be much too short a price if the big guns have come in earlier in the day. He will be a popular choice of newspaper tipsters and will subsequently feature in many betting shop multiples so the high street chains will be keen to get the price down to reduce liabilities. I think the key to this race is Roger Varian and he runs two that I fancy. Preference is just for the unbeaten WADIGOR. Unraced at two and not seen at all on a racecourse until last September he has only had three runs winning them all well. In truth he is the only horse in the race who could be considered unexposed and potentially a group horse. Varian’s second runner Appeared is slightly lower in both the handicap and the betting and boasts some solid form. I can see them giving the trainer a 1-2. Baydar is also of interest dropping back to handicap company and having a decent five pound claimer on board. He would be my tricast selection.
Just one more day to go then after this. Once again lets hope for a repeat of Tuesday and good luck to anyone having a go. Back for one last tilt tomorrow.
The (Not so) Daily Racing Page 