So after being unable to write free to air in 2016 I am back with a daily look at this years Royal meeting. Hopefully I can point you in the direction of one or two longer priced each way fancies this year that will provide a different option to taking short price favourites. Having said that though there are of course always going to be one or two that are unopposable even at a short price.
As ever, day one kicks off with the Queen Anne Stakes at 2:30, a straight mile for the older horses and one that has been quite kind to me over the years. Despite my comments in the opening paragraph RIBCHESTER has the look of one of those unopposable favourites and appears to be in the mould of a classic Queen Anne winner. Still on the upgrade it is difficult to see past him. For those looking for a long price each way alternative or a forecast you could do worse than Ennaadd at about the 20/1 mark. Impressive in one run as a two year old he was actually being touted as a Guineas horse that winter and despite not quite making that grade remained unbeaten in three races at three. Despite failing to win in two starts so far this season he has the look of a horse that will make up into a good four year old and looks good value for a place.
The first two year old race of the meeting is the Coventry Stakes at 3:05 and as ever the field is both strong and competitive. Regular followers of mine will know that I like to keep unbeaten horses on side and there are a number of those on offer here. Despite that De Bruyne Horse is liable to go off a worthy favourite even though he has tasted defeat once already before wining the Woodcote at Epsom. This is a much tougher assignment than the Woodcote though and I expect a few to improve past him. Jessica Harrington’s Brother Bear had plenty of these behind when winning at the Curragh and heads many early price boards. The preference for me though is the unbeaten RAJASINGHE. Bred to be a two year old he destroyed the field in his only run so far at Newcastle and if coping with the step up in class he could well worth an each way punt at around the 12/1 mark. The unbeaten Denaar is my suggestion for the forecast.
Sprinters come to the fore at 3:40 for the Kings Stand Stakes and this should be lightning fast in the quick conditions. I have been a keen follower of Muthmir throughout his career but he seems to come up short in the top races and I expect more of the same today. He could though be good value for a place at around 16/1. In truth the race looks to be between Marsha and LADY AURELIA. It is a close call but I just prefer the later mainly due to the memory of her performance here last year and the fact that she receives weight from the whole field.
The main race of day one is the St James Palace Stakes at 4:20 and this one definitely has the look of a match between the Guineas 1-2. Churchill has been very impressive so far this season but at the likely odds BARNEY ROY makes much more sense as a bet. He is far more lightly raced so you would expect there to be plenty of improvement still to come and he comes to the race fresh having bypassed the Irish Guineas. He only needs to improve a length or so and was very unlucky in running at Newmarket. The remainder appear to be running for third but Churchill’s pacemaker Lancaster Bomber is a tough horse and could hold on for third. If all eight go to post the 25/1 each way could be a steal.
The first handicap of the meeting is the long distance Ascot Stakes at 5:00 and what a tight handicap it is. Twenty runners separated by only nine pounds a case can be made for almost all of the runners. My tendency here is to look for one at decent odds but I can’t seem to get away from THOMAS HOBSON despite him not having run on the level for 1333 days. This race usually goes to a National Hunt trainer and Willie Mullins looks to have laid this one out for the race. The likely odds of 3/1 are not that appealing but he is still hard to get away from. This is a good race for selecting more than one runner and for those interested in longer price each way alternatives or a tricast or forecast bet my suggestions would be Cartwright from the Sir Mark Prescott yard who never enters a horse just for the sake of it at this meeting and Magic Circle who ran well in the Chester Cup from a hopeless draw.
Day one ends with another two year old race the Windsor Castle Stakes at 5:35. With twenty four runners they will be spread right across the track and there looks to be pace on both sides of the draw. Wesley Ward has a strong hand with two unbeaten fillies Nootka Sound and Elizabeth Darcy, they are both likely to be up with the pace but may just go too quickly on a straight course and set the race up for something from behind. With that in mind I am going to go with ROUSSEL who won well at Leicester recently despite not looking as though he was totally aware of his job that day. I expect the £360,000 purchase to have improved considerably since that day and that Charlie Appleby will have him spot on for this race. The fast pace is likely to get him interested and see him knuckle down and stick to his task better here. That pace could also set up Declarationofpeace to run into a place as he is bred for a longer trip than most of these.
Those are my thoughts on day one then. BOLD CAPITALS is my likely idea of the winner, bold itallics each way alternatives and/or forecast/tricast suggestions.
Good luck to everyone having a punt and I’ll be back tomorrow with some more hopefully useful insights.
The (Not so) Daily Racing Page 